2020 Presidential Analysis

If you thought the 2016 was an embarrassing show of American political theater, 2020 will lower the bar for you more than you thought possible. The person who wins the election in November will be the oldest person ever elected to the Presidency. Both major party nominees have shown signs of cognitive decline and have a track record of crude, insensitive, and bizarre comments and behavior. But the vast majority of our utterly polarized voting populace will happily vote for their preferred candidate and declare that they've made a huge moral victory over the opposing team. Regardless of how we feel about the two nominees, it's important and informative to analyze probable outcomes of the election. Politics and policies aside, barring catastrophe, either Donald Trump or Joe Biden will be sworn in on January 20, 2021. And we can very reasonably predict which states will lend their electoral votes to which candidate, for the most part. Joe Biden is sure to win the coastal states of California (55 electoral votes), Oregon (7 electoral votes), Washington (12), New York (29), Connecticut (7), Rhode Island (4), New Jersey (14), Delaware (3), Massachusetts (11), and Maryland (10). So that gives Joe Biden an assured 152 votes and ten states on the East and West Coasts. However, he will win a few non-coastal states, and of course, the 3 electoral votes from Washington, DC. The Biden/Harris is also very likely to win in Illinois (20), Hawaii (4), Vermont (3), and Colorado (9). This will yield a total of 191 electoral votes for the Democratic ticket.
Let's take a look at what the Trump/Pence ticket is guaranteed. There is a swath of Southern, Midwest, and Western states that are very safe bets for the Repuublican ticket. Alaska (3 electoral votes), Alabama (9), Arkansas (6), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Ohio (18), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3) are quite likely to lend their electoral votes to Trump. That gives Republicans a total of 25 states and 219 electoral votes.
Now, we've accounted for 38 states and 410 electoral votes. Twelve states are still in play.

Arizona: In 2016, Clinton won Arizona by 3%, so Biden has a pretty good chance of repeating her win, especially as he is sharing the ballot with a very strong US Senate candidate in 2020.

Florida: The perennial swing state, Florida was clinched by Trump in 2016 with only 1% of the vote separating him from Hillary Clinton. He will have to work hard to maintain that lead this year.

Maine: Because Maine has two separate districts that award electoral votes separately, Trump was able to obtain one electoral vote from Maine in 2016. His lead in that district was so great in 2016 (more than 10%) that he is likely to repeat that winning performance in 2020.

Michigan: This was a “make or break” state for Trump's 2016 campaign. He was able to win in 2016 by less than .25%. Trump was the first Republican in 28 years to win in Michigan, and it will be a major focus in his 2020 campaign.

Minnesota: Hillary Clinton won Minnesota in 2016 (not surprisingly, as it is a traditionally blue state) but by less than 2%. Trump will do what he can to make inroads in Minnesota to widen his margin of success in 2020.

Nevada: Nevada is another state that Clinton won in 2016, but by less than 2%. Another target state for Trump's campaign that will not be an easy win for him or Biden.

New Hampshire: New Hampshire is perhaps second only to Maine in its likelihood to lend an electoral vote to Trump. Clinton won New Hampshire by only .37% of the vote. New Hampshire is the only true batteground state in New England in 2020.

New Mexico: The only reasons this state made the list are that Clinton didn't hit 50% of the vote in 2016 and that it was an anomaly in that election because their ex-Governor Gary Johnson earned over 9% of the vote as the Libertarian nominee. It is quite likely that Biden will win in 2020, but it will be interesting to observe how many of his voters will vote Libertarian this year and how many will revert back to the D/R binary.

Pennsylvania: This was another historic win for Trump's 2016 run and also an incredibly thin margin of victory (less than 1%). Pennsylvania is a major 2020 battleground and could go either way as it borders Trump's home state of New York and Biden's home state of Delaware. Like Michigan, Pennsylvania has spent decades as a comfortably blue state, so it may be an easier win for Biden.

Virginia: Another reliably blue state in recent decades, Virginia is another that is almost safely in the bag for Biden. However, even though Hillary Clinton chose Virginia Senator Kaine as her running mate in 2016, they only had a 5% margin of victory over Trump and they failed to garner 50% of the vote in Virginia, so it's still in play for this November.

Wisconsin: Wisconsin was a key victory for Trump in 2016 and it's another that his re-election could depend on. However, he only won by less than 1% in 2016, so it's certainly not guaranteed.

In general, I think the electoral map in 2020 will look a lot like 2016. I think it is a distinct possibility that Trump could win at least a couple states that he lost in 2016, such as New Hampshire or Minnesota or even Nevada. On the other hand, Biden could win a few that Clinton couldn't pull of in 2016, like Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin. There are a lot of factors playing into people's choice this year. The economic roller coaster of the past few years, Trump's handling of the coronavirus pandemic, the political theater of the Russian collusion Congressional investigation and subequent impeachment proceedings. President Trump certainly has the upper hand in having the incumbency, a strong economy minus the pandemic, and many campaign promises kept (although many that he didn't deliver on). Biden has the advantage of not being Trump and not much else beyond incredible funding and a media that wants nothing more than a win for Team Blue. His strategic VP pick will potentially give him inroads with people who may not have been so quick to give him their vote otherwise. But Trump can afford to lose one or two states in the Rust Belt. If he keeps his 2016 trifecta of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, he can even afford to lose Florida to Biden. It's impossible to predict exactly how Election Day 2020 will play out, but realistically, I'd say the only states likely to change from 2016 to 2020 are New Hampshire, Michigan, Florida, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. If Biden wins a majority of these, he will win the election. There is a slim possibility of a 269-269 split in the Electoral College, but that is a very slim possibility. The most likely outcome is that Trump wins with a smaller electoral college victory than he did in 2016. I would say there is perhaps a 20% chance that Joe Biden will pull off a small win in the electoral college. Depending how the economy, pandemic, and Biden's cognizance are doing in November, we are more than likely looking at another Trump win.